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Small business optimism rises but remains below historical average

Madeleine Oldstone Policy Analyst | NFIB

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index experienced an increase of 2.2 points in October, reaching 93.7. Despite this rise, the index has remained below the 50-year average of 98 for 34 consecutive months. Additionally, the Uncertainty Index climbed seven points to a record high of 110.

NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg commented on the situation, stating, "With the election over, small business owners will begin to feel less uncertain about future business conditions." He noted that while optimism is growing among small business owners, they continue to face significant economic challenges such as low sales and inflationary pressures.

NFIB State Director Jason Espinoza echoed these sentiments: "Small business owners are hopeful as they enter the holiday season. Main Street continues to face a host of economic challenges, including inflation and a worker shortage."

Key findings from the report indicate that a net negative 20% of all owners reported higher nominal sales over the past three months, marking the lowest reading since July 2020. Furthermore, a net 31% reported raising compensation—a decrease from September—and job openings remain difficult to fill for many businesses.

In terms of future expectations, there was an increase in owners expecting higher real sales volumes and planning capital outlays in the coming months. However, inflation remains a pressing issue for many small businesses.

The NFIB's monthly jobs report highlighted that hiring remains challenging with many reporting few or no qualified applicants for open positions. Meanwhile, reports of positive profit trends showed slight improvement compared to previous months.

The data collection by NFIB Research Center has been ongoing since 1973 with monthly surveys conducted since 1986. The latest survey reflects responses gathered in October 2024.

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