The special election to fill a vacant New Mexico congressional seat may offer a glimpse into America’s political future.
That’s the view of a University of New Mexico political science professor.
“And one of the reasons I think that's the case, because the 1st Congressional District in many ways reflects what the future of America might look like,” said associate professor Michael Rocca. “You have some really interesting energy, health, defense industries. We’re probably below average when it comes to economics across the country.”
Democrats have won every congressional race in the district since 2008, and state Rep. Melanie Stansbury kept that streak alive by easily defeating Republican state Sen. Mark Moores in the special election to fill the House seat formerly held by Interior Secretary Deb Haaland, who resigned on March 16 after her nomination to the cabinet post was approved by the U.S. Senate the day before.
Stansbury won 79,208 to 46,977, or 60% to 36%.
The district, which includes Albuquerque and surrounding areas, has become dependably Democratic and likely will remain so for many years, Rocca said.
“Well, not forever. You never say forever. But certainly in the short term,” he said. “The demographic changes over the last 20 or 30 years has flipped this from a red district, a pretty solid red district, to a blue district. But not only just demographic changes, but I would say the demographic changes meaning particularly the rise in Hispanic populations in the entire state, the Southwest and particularly also, of course, the 1st Congressional District.”
Stansbury’s win was by a greater margin than President Joe Biden’s victory in the district as well as Haaland’s re-election last fall. In her June 2 victory speech, she said many people shared credit for the win.
"First thing I want to say to you all is, it's a good day to be a New Mexican. Because tonight, New Mexico delivered for our people, delivered for our communities, and delivered for the United States of America,” Stansbury said. “And tonight's victory is all of yours. To our voters, our volunteers, our donors, our staff, our family and our friends. This victory is yours. Thank you, you did this.
“You showed up and you showed that democracy matters, that science matters and that we believe in our people and our future,” she said. “And that when the moment demands it, we have to show up with every fiber of our grit, determination and heart and deliver for our communities. And that is why I ran to be your next congresswoman."
Rocca said Stansbury ran on issues that have proven effective for Democrats, such as social justice, civil liberties and civil rights, while also strongly supporting Biden, calling for investments in infrastructure and programs to address climate change, drought and hunger.
Meanwhile, Moores, a third-term state senator, campaigned on a need to support law enforcement while saying efforts were needed to reduce Albuquerque’s rising crime rate, especially the increasing number of murders.
“First of all, it did not surprise me at all,” Rocca said. “I have to say, I think that's probably going to be a theme that we're going to hear in 2022 from a lot of Republicans as they reflect back on the last two or three years, actually, really four to five years.
“My guess was that what the state senator was trying was ... sort of a campaign that that Republicans across the country are going to try to duplicate in 2022,” he said. “It didn't gain much traction here in the 1st Congressional District. And I think, again, it's probably just because it's just a blue district. But I would argue that it was not surprising and it was certainly something that was a topic that seems to be gaining some traction for Republicans across the country.”
Rocca said voters wanted to hear about other issues, and again, that reflects on the views of the majority of Americans, such as “economy, health care, education, all these things that just sort of that go down the list of America's most important challenges.”
He said the 1st District was a good fit for Stansbury as it has evolved. The national political landscape has been shifting and the district reflects that.
“The sorting that has happened over the last 20, 30 years has a lot to do with how blue it's become, where, you know, it was OK for the time that Republicans controlled the district. It was perfectly normal for a left-of-center, maybe leaning liberal to call themselves a Republican or a right-of-center conservative to call themselves a Democrat,” Rocca said. “Well, those days are over. Now that the two parties have sorted themselves out, liberals are Democrats, conservatives are Republicans, you've seen the 1st District here become safer for the Democrats because of it. It's just the demographics. The structure of the district just makes it a left-of-center district.”
Stansbury, 42, grew up in Albuquerque but left home to build her career.
She worked for the White House Office of Management and Budget during the Obama administration and then for the U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources. Stansbury returned in 2016 and in 2018 unseated seven-term incumbent Republican state Rep. Jimmie Hall. She was re-elected in 2020 and now has been elected to Congress.
It was, Rocca said, a “very quick rise to prominence.” In the past, most politicians had to pay their dues and slowly move up the ranks. That seems to be changing, he said.
“And you know, what we've seen over the last maybe four or five election cycles in the congressional elections is that the relatively green politicians with not much name recognition as far as elected office goes, has actually been doing quite well,” Rocca said. “And it probably has something to do with the time of social media. You know, sometimes if you're vocal, it's easier to get your name out there. And there's a lot more bang for the buck, especially when you use social media, use the TV ads appropriately or not, they're a little bit quicker than the old days.”
Rocca said he is well aware of Stansbury’s talents. He is in charge of the political science department’s internship program, so he has personal experience with her and her staff.
“And I will tell you that everything around Melanie Stansbury is a well-oiled machine,” he said. “That's been the experience that we've had working with her and a very professional staff. It’s well-organized. It's relatively well-funded.”
That was apparent from her first race for the Legislature in 2018. She is very “professional and well-organized,” Rocca said.
“I will say that from the moment that she hit the ground here in New Mexican politics, you knew that she was going to be a force to be reckoned with because she and her staff and the people around her are so well-organized,” he said.
Historically, the 1st District has been a launching pad for higher office, with governors and senators having that post on their resume.
“Absolutely,” Rocca said. “And don't forget cabinet now, too, right?”
Rocca is the coordinator of the Political Science Internship Program, chair of the UNM Faculty Senate Athletic Council, and on the selection committee of the Fred Harris Congressional Internship Program, State Legislative Internship Program, and Mayor’s Select Internship Program.