A special election for a New Mexico congressional seat shows the district, and the state, are turning a brighter shade of blue, according to a political science professor.
State Rep. Melanie Stansbury soundly defeated Republican state Sen. Mark Moores for the 1st Congressional District seat Tuesday night. Stansbury won 79,208 to 46,977, or 60% to 36%, according to the New Mexico Secretary of State’s website, with minor candidates garnering 4% of the vote. The district includes Albuquerque and surrounding areas.
University of New Mexico Department of Political Science professor Gabriel Sanchez said the margin of victory indicates that Albuquerque and the 1st District remain firmly in Democratic hands. The last time a Republican won the district was 2006.
“The outcome of the congressional race was not surprising, as this district has become increasingly safe for Democrats,” Sanchez said. “However, with a landslide victory for Stansbury in a special election where the outcome would be expected to be tighter, we have to wonder if this district will ever be competitive again.
“Many of us remember the days when this was one of the most-watched districts in the country with razor-thin margins of victory,” he said. “I do not think, short of significant redistricting, that we will see those days again anytime soon, but if this redistricting cycle prioritizes competitiveness as a criterion, we could see more motivation from national Republican funders to pour the money into the district needed to make this a more interesting district.”
New Mexico elects three U.S. representatives — all are Democrats and women — and 112 state legislators. All the districts could be altered following the 2020 census.
But this special election, forced by the resignation of Deb Halaand when the Senate approved her nomination to serve as secretary of the interior, showed that the district remains Democratic.
Stansbury was the clear favorite once the state party selected her as its candidate on April 1. She grew up in Albuquerque but had worked in Washington, D.C., as a White House and congressional aide before returning home in 2016.
By 2018 she was elected to the state House and she won a second term in 2020. When Haaland was nominated for a cabinet post, Stansbury was the first Democrat to declare for the office.
Sanchez said everything fell into place for her, and she was well-positioned to take advantage of that.
“Timing is everything in politics, and Congresswoman-elect Stansbury has come back to New Mexico at an ideal time to take advantage of her political skills and professional background,” he said. “Her left-of-center politics fit the current political climate very well at a time when progressive values have become more dominant and when a rare open seat for Congress emerged.”
During the campaign, and in her victory address, Stansbury, 42, emphasized her roots in the community and her humble beginnings. Her mother worked in a denim factory and as a crane operator to help support her family.
“A graduate of Cibola High School [and I have three sisters who are alumni of Cibola] Stansbury is somewhat of a fresh face to the political scene but has the ability to remind voters she is from here and understands the needs and challenges of the district,” Sanchez said.
It was an effective strategy, as Stansbury ran ahead of President Biden’s margin of victory in 2020 as well as Halaand’s in her re-election bid last fall. Haaland defeated Republican Michelle Garcia Holmes 186,953 to 134,337, or 58.2% to 41%.
Moores, a third-term state senator, focused on support for law enforcement and the rising crime rate in Albuquerque but struggled to gain ground in the district.
Sanchez is the founding Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Chair in Health Policy at UNM, co-founder of the UNM Native American Budget and Policy Institute, and executive director of the UNM Center for Social Policy.