Southern New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District is a toss-up seat, the type of which will largely determine the complexion of the House after the 2024 elections.
The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+4. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the partisan lean at 52.3D – 44.2R. In 2020, President Biden carried the NM-2 seat with a 51.9 – 46.1% margin. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks the seat as the 22nd most vulnerable Democratic congressional district.
One of the closest 2022 campaigns occurred here when then-Las Cruces City Councilman Gabe Vasquez (D) defeated freshman Rep. Yvette Herrell (R) by a scant 50.3-49.6% victory margin in a gerrymandered district designed to elect a Democrat.
Though the statistics suggest the seat should be leaning more strongly toward the Democrats, the congressional race largely played to a draw, and a new poll suggests a similar status for the coming election.
Survey USA was just in the field testing the 2024 Vasquez-Herrell re-match campaign. The study (9/6-12; 541 NM-2 likely voters; live interview & online) sees Ms. Herrell clinging to a slight one point edge over Rep. Vasquez, 46-45%.
In 2021, New Mexico was one of only four states where Democrats fully controlled the redistricting process. Therefore, the map drawers were under considerable pressure to sweep all three districts.
Their plan worked, at least in the short term, but the 2nd District is proving closer than they would have hoped, and even what was a safe northern 3rd District of Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez (D-Santa Fe) is now potentially competitive (538: D+5; Dave’s Redistricting App: 55.2D – 41.6R; President Biden ’20: 54.4 – 43.6%; Daily Kos House Vulnerability: 44 of 213 Democratic House seats).
In order to make the 2nd District more Democratic in the 2021 redistricting plan the seat was driven north into the Albuquerque suburbs, thereby increasing the 538 rating from the previous R+14 to D+4. Like all three of the state’s districts, the 2nd is now heavily Hispanic, but is now the only one where this demographic segment comprises a majority of the population. The 2nd’s Hispanic population percentage is 56.1 versus 33.3% white, 2.8% black, and 1.8% Asian.
Republicans scoring better with Hispanics, however, is the key reason this district appears to be exceeding its voter history figures. If the trend continues, NM-2 will move up the GOP conversion target list and remain in the toss-up category throughout the 2024 election
Expect this race to draw significant financial resources. Rep. Vasquez raised $823,576 through the June 30th report, which will be significantly updated at the end of this month. His cash-on-hand filing was $596,440. Ms. Herrell attracted $380,015 through the same period, with $388,233 in her campaign account. Expect both candidates to report much larger financial figures at the end of this third period of the off-election
Prior to Rep. Vasquez being elected, he served four years on the Las Cruces City Council. He is a previous Executive Director of the Las Cruces Hispanic Chamber of Commerce, was a staff member for Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-NM), and worked for several environmental
This will be Yvette Herrell’s fourth run for the congressional seat. Before winning in 2020, she lost the 2018 race to Xochitl Torres Small by another close result, 50.9 – 49.1%. Ms. Herrell returned in 2020 to unseat Rep. Torres Small by just under 20,000 votes in winning 54-46%. Prior to running for Congress, Ms. Herrell served four terms in the New Mexico House of Representatives from the Alamogordo
If the Republicans are to hold their slim House majority, they must win tight districts such as this one to neutralize the Democrats’ apparent advantage on the second round of redistricting. The NM-2 race will again be a key district to watch throughout the 2024 election cycle.
Jim Ellis is President of Ellis Insight, LLC, a national election analysis firm.