Some are saying that the one good thing about the Ukraine caused energy crisis is that it will accelerate the transition away from our dependence on fossil fuels. To the extent that higher energy prices will spur investments in Nuclear and other reliable carbon free energy sources, perhaps that is true. But there are other conclusions to be drawn.  Here are three lessons learned from the dire current situation.

• While I agree we should be moving to reduce carbon emissions, we should not be reducing the supply of fossil fuels before we reduce our consumption, because when we really need energy, we’ll pay whatever it takes to get it.  The reality is that the world demand for energy will continue to increase as the population rises and as the standard of living improves in the developing world.  Right now, over 80% of the energy supply is from fossil fuels.  Unfortunately, that energy supply is under attack both in the US and Europe, with pipelines being cancelled, leasing being limited, environmental and regulatory hurdles being added at every step, and mandates being put into law that require that supply to go away.  The problem is, even if renewables were being added in sufficient quantities (which they are not), wind and solar do not really replace that supply, as they are unreliable, intermittent sources that still require backup natural gas generation.  Therefore, with demand for energy forever increasing, until the supplies of Nuclear and other reliable carbon free sources are developed and until the infrastructure is put in place to go virtually all electric, continued efforts to limit the supply of fossil fuels will do nothing but create energy shortages, resulting in significantly higher future energy prices.

• While climate change will arguably cause society some pain in the future, higher energy prices cause significant pain right now.  The social injustice of climate change aside, the poor of the world are much more harmed by higher energy prices than they might be by a slight rise in future sea level.  What Bangladesh really needs, for example, is access to low cost energy so they can modernize their living environment and adapt to the current climate, which is plenty harsh already.  
• America (and the world) needs to be careful who they become reliant on for their energy supplies, as it puts us in a vulnerable situation should that supply get cut off.  That is why it was such a big deal that, for a minute anyway, America was energy independent.  When it comes to wind and solar, however, we are absolutely dependent on some big, ugly mines in third world countries, and in particular China, for the rare earth metals needed for those renewable energy sources. Becoming reliant on them is nothing but a recipe for another future politically driven disaster. 

In closing, despite the threat of climate change, it is clear that the world still desperately needs fossil fuels.  Therefore, until other reliable, low cost energy supplies are developed and the infrastructure is in place, we need to be extremely careful about limiting the supply of oil and gas, lest we cut our nose off to spite our face. 

George Sharpe has a Masters in Petroleum Engineering from the Colorado School of Mines and has 40 years of experience in the industry. George is an advocate for ALL energy and has created numerous YouTube educational videos on various energy topics.