New Mexico is facing a significant decline in public school enrollment, a concern that has been highlighted by the Rio Grande Foundation (RGF) for several years. The foundation has pointed out various challenges the state faces, including high poverty rates, a poor education system, crime, and lack of jobs or a diversified economy. Recently, another issue has emerged: the "birth dearth," which refers to the declining birth rates seen both in the US and other industrialized nations.

This decrease in birth rates, coupled with New Mexico's existing educational challenges, has already led to a reduction in public school enrollment. However, projections indicate that this trend will accelerate, causing an even more rapid decline in the state's youth population.

Data from the National Center for Education Statistics reveals that while New Mexico's public school enrollment once peaked at nearly 340,000 students, it is now on a downward trajectory expected to worsen significantly by 2031. The projected decline surpasses the national average of 5.5% and is only exceeded by California and Hawaii among US states. Compared to its neighboring states, New Mexico's student enrollment decline is much more pronounced.

Despite initiatives such as statewide free pre-K and college programs aimed at retaining young people, New Mexico continues to experience this demographic challenge. A recent podcast by KRQE Channel 13 delves into the state's declining population issue.