Michael Rocca, an associate professor in Political Science and the director of the Master of Public Policy Program at The University of New Mexico, recently discussed campaign spending and congressional races. Rocca’s research has been featured in various academic journals, and he has received multiple teaching awards.
On the topic of presidential campaign spending, Rocca stated, “It’s going to be a lot of money. We have seen a significant rise in spending by presidential candidates and congressional candidates over the last 10, 15, 20 years, with an explosion over the last two or three election cycles.” He noted that total spending in recent elections was around $16 billion for both congressional and presidential races combined.
Discussing the sources of campaign funds, Rocca explained, “The money is essentially coming from two or three different sources. The first source is a bunch of small donors... most of that money is coming from a small portion of very large donors.” He also mentioned the impact of the Citizens United ruling which allows unlimited contributions to independent expenditure groups like Super PACs.
Regarding the Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission decision, Rocca said it “fundamentally changed the way election spending works” by allowing corporations and unions to spend freely on federal elections as an expression of free speech.
Rocca highlighted that a significant portion of campaign funds is allocated to media: “About 60 percent of all that money is going to media, and most of that media money is going to TV ads.”
He also addressed whether increased campaign spending can influence election outcomes: “It can... It’s usually the candidate who’s raising the most amount of money... I would argue the American public typically gets the casual error wrong there.”
On voting trends this year, Rocca observed minimal split-ticket voting but noted a shift where voters might support different parties at different levels: “There’s very little split ticket voting these days... maybe President Trump at the presidential level and then the democratic member of Congress.”
Rocca commented on New Mexico's congressional races stating they are likely unchanged: “Congressional Districts one and three continue to lean democratic... The second congressional district in southern New Mexico is going to be competitive.”
Regarding local issues targeted by candidates, he listed topics such as water, climate change, immigration, healthcare, crime, abortion, education, and particularly economic concerns.
Lastly, discussing media influence on campaigns he said it remains debated: “The media matters as long as the messages are received... One argument and a clear finding in literature are that the media does not have as much effect on public opinion on elections as the average American assumes it to have.”
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